Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
TeleSoft Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 39.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.5 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 39.5%
Vs median VC book
-11.0 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 48.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-24.6 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 62.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-3.0 pp
75.0% on 4 deals vs 78.0%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 8 of 10 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (2 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 5.7%–51.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.4 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 15.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xambalaxambala.com | 2004 | No | 96 | Yes |
| LiteScape Technologieslitescape.com | 2005 | Yes | 75 | — |
| LogLogicloglogic.com | 2004 | No | 75 | — |
| Sierra Design Automation | 2003 | No | 73 | — |
| VoiceObjectsvoiceobjects.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Calient Technologiescalient.net | 2004 | No | 52 | — |
| BayPackets | 2005 | No | 52 | — |
| Validity Sensorsvalidityinc.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |
| AmberWaveamberwave.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| The FeedRoomfeedroom.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |