Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Third Rock Ventures vs Kairos
63rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.2% (13 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 49.1%–87.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 74th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+24.8 pp
72.2% on 18 deals vs 47.4%
Vs median VC book
+11.4 pp
72.2% on 18 deals vs 60.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-4.3 pp
72.2% on 18 deals vs 76.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-0.4 pp
72.2% on 18 deals vs 72.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
76
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 77.8% (7 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 45.3%–93.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+66.7 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 11.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Medicinesblueprintmedicines.com | 2011 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Ember Therapeuticsembertx.com | 2011 | No | 97 | — |
| Lotus Tissue Repairlotustissuerepair.com | 2011 | No | 96 | — |
| Constellation Pharmaceuticalsconstellationpharma.com | 2009 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Global Blood Therapeuticsglobalbloodtx.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Alcrestaalcresta.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Allena Pharmaceuticalsallenapharma.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Agios Pharmaceuticalsagiospharmaceuticals.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| SAGE Therapeuticssagerx.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Nurixnurix-inc.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Topica Pharmaceuticalstopicapharma.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Ablexisablexis.com | 2010 | No | 79 | — |
| Alnara Pharmaceuticalsalnara.com | 2008 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Cibiemcibiem.com | 2012 | No | 60 | — |
| Jounce Therapeuticsjouncetx.com | 2013 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Corvia Medicalcorviamedical.com | 2013 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Editas Medicineeditasmedicine.com | 2013 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Warp Drive Biowarpdrivebio.com | 2012 | No | 31 | — |