Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Thomas, McNerney & Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (5 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.9%–91.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+26.2 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 45.3%
Vs median VC book
+17.3 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 54.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+2.7 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 68.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+0.6 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 70.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+13.7 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 14.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torax Medicaltoraxmedical.com | 2005 | No | 86 | — |
| Zogenixzogenix.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Solstice Neurosciencessolsticeneuro.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| InnoPharmainnopharmainc.com | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Quinnova Pharmaceuticalsquinnova.com | 2006 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Galil Medicalgalil-medical.com | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| Intuity Medicalintuitymedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 46 | — |