Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Three Arch Partners vs Kairos
56th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 61.9% (13 of 21 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.9%–79.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 66th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.0 pp
61.9% on 21 deals vs 41.9%
Vs median VC book
+8.2 pp
61.1% on 18 deals vs 52.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.3 pp
61.1% on 18 deals vs 68.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-0.9 pp
61.1% on 18 deals vs 62.0%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 18 of 21 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 40.0% (8 of 20). 95% Wilson interval 21.9%–61.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+27.4 pp
40.0% on 20 deals vs 12.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
21 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hemospherehemosphere.net | 2010 | No | 95 | — |
| Concert Pharmaceuticalsconcertpharma.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| TriReme Medicaltrirememedical.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Nevronevro.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Calistoga Pharmaceuticalscalistogapharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Benvenue Medicalbenvenuemedical.com | 2008 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Baxanobaxano.com | 2008 | Yes | 68 | — |
| SpinalMotionspinalmotion.com | 2005 | No | 66 | — |
| Cardiac Conceptscardiacconcepts.com | 2008 | Yes | 56 | — |
| NeuroVistaneurovista.com | 2007 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Calibra Medical | 2008 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Ingenuity Systemsingenuity.com | 2010 | No | 52 | — |
| Reliant Technologiesreliant-tech.com | 2007 | No | 51 | — |
| Allux Medical | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| Cameron Healthcameronhealth.com | 2008 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Free & Clearfreeclear.com | 2010 | No | 24 | — |
| Satietysatiety.com | 2007 | Yes | 20 | — |
| NovaSysnovasyshealth.com | 2008 | No | 9 | — |
| VisionCare Ophthalmic Technologiesvisioncareinc.net | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Concuityconcuity.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Epocratesepocrates.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |