Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Thrive Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 75.0% (9 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 46.8%–91.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 49.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+25.3 pp
75.0% on 12 deals vs 49.7%
Vs median VC book
+9.0 pp
75.0% on 12 deals vs 66.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.6 pp
75.0% on 12 deals vs 82.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.8 pp
75.0% on 12 deals vs 72.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
83
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot Potatohotpotato.com | 2009 | No | 98 | — |
| GroupMegroupme.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Zolazola.com | 2013 | Yes | 91 | — |
| SHIFTshift.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Baby.com.brbaby.com.br | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Giftlygiftly.com | 2011 | No | 85 | — |
| Kickstarter | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Vyclonevyclone.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| Gobblegobble.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Neverwareneverware.com | 2013 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Oscarhioscar.com | 2013 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Koa.lakoa.la | 2013 | Yes | — | — |