Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
TL Ventures vs Kairos
13th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 36.8% (7 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 19.1%–59.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 20th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-7.3 pp
36.8% on 19 deals vs 44.1%
Vs median VC book
-17.9 pp
36.8% on 19 deals vs 54.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-31.4 pp
36.8% on 19 deals vs 68.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-35.5 pp
36.8% on 19 deals vs 72.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
19
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 6.7% (1 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 1.2%–29.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-7.5 pp
6.7% on 15 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirespire.com | 2008 | No | 97 | — |
| Moonshootmoonshoot.net | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| BostInnobostinno.streetwise.co | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| JAM Technologies | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| ClariFIclarifi.com | 2006 | No | 66 | — |
| Apogee Photonics | 2005 | No | 62 | — |
| Optichronoptichron.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Noble Biomaterialsnoblebiomaterials.com | 2012 | Yes | 62 | — |
| AirWalk Communicationsairwalkcom.com | 2006 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Advanced Inquiry Systems Inc.advancedinquiry.com | 2005 | No | 58 | — |
| Sonicssonicsinc.com | 2005 | No | 57 | — |
| VeriWaveveriwave.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| ScaleMPscalemp.com | 2008 | No | 49 | — |
| T-Networkstnetworksinc.com | 2005 | No | 42 | — |
| Kleerkleer.com | 2008 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Global Education Learninggelholdings.com | 2012 | No | 30 | — |
| Blaze Public Relationsblazepr.com | 2005 | No | 24 | — |
| Velsys Limitedvelsys.com | 2010 | No | 22 | — |
| Celator Pharmaceuticalscelatorpharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 20 | — |