Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Transmedia Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 80.0% (8 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 49.0%–94.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+32.0 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 48.0%
Vs median VC book
+17.0 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 63.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+1.2 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 78.8%
Vs Y Combinator
+4.8 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 75.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
86
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 80.0% (4 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 37.6%–96.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+68.6 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tellotello.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| ContextLogiccontextlogic.com | 2011 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Scanscan.me | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| SnappyTVsnappytv.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Merchant Atlasmerchantatlas.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| AppMakrappmakr.com | 2010 | No | 84 | — |
| Percolatepercolate.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Relevvantrelevvant.com | 2011 | No | 76 | — |
| clypdclypd.com | 2013 | Yes | 71 | — |
| RolePointrolepoint.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |