Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Tribeca Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.7% (8 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.4%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+24.5 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 48.3%
Vs median VC book
+8.5 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 64.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.7 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 80.4%
Vs Y Combinator
+0.7 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 72.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+8.6 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spanfeller Media Groupspanfellergroup.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| NiftyThriftyniftythrifty.com | 2012 | No | 90 | — |
| RealDirectrealdirect.com | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Lendiolendio.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| MyNinesmynines.com | 2010 | No | 79 | — |
| Nimble TVnimbletv.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Coinsettercoinsetter.com | 2013 | Yes | 73 | — |
| clypdclypd.com | 2013 | Yes | 71 | — |
| FTRANSftrans.net | 2008 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Informousinformous.com | 2011 | No | 30 | — |
| Maxwell Healthmaxwellhealth.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Just Sing Itjustsingit.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |