Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Trident Capital vs Kairos
25th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 47.1% (16 of 34 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 31.5%–63.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 36th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+4.7 pp
47.1% on 34 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
-2.3 pp
50.0% on 32 deals vs 52.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-17.0 pp
50.0% on 32 deals vs 67.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.8 pp
48.4% on 31 deals vs 62.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 32 of 34 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
32
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
20/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.1% (4 of 33). 95% Wilson interval 4.8%–27.3%.
Vs exit base rate
-1.6 pp
12.1% on 33 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
34 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIXXI Solutionsinetwork.com | 2007 | No | 100 | Yes |
| HyTrusthytrust.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Perfect Escapesperfectescapes.com | 2007 | No | 98 | — |
| Continuentcontinuent.com | 2005 | No | 97 | Yes |
| Spirespire.com | 2008 | No | 97 | — |
| Syndero | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Senergen Devicessenergendevices.com | 2008 | No | 96 | — |
| Siva Powersivapower.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Desi Hitsdesihits.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| DepotPointdepotpoint.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| worldhistoryprojectworldhistoryproject.org | 2007 | No | 82 | — |
| Clarus Systemsclarussystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Vidientvidient.com | 2005 | No | 81 | — |
| Turnturn.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Sojernsojern.com | 2008 | Yes | 79 | — |
| PivotLinksmartfocus.com | 2007 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Teranodeteranode.com | 2005 | No | 72 | — |
| ECO2 Plasticseco2plastics.com | 2008 | No | 71 | — |
| RoyaltyShareroyaltyshare.com | 2006 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Vidaveevidavee.com | 2006 | No | 60 | — |
| Zeomyzeo.com | 2009 | Yes | 58 | — |
| TriCiphertricipher.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Neohapsisneohapsis.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Tablus | 2006 | No | 44 | — |
| Profexprofex.com | 2008 | No | 37 | — |
| Arantecharantech.com | 2005 | Yes | 28 | — |
| AirTight Networksairtightnetworks.com | 2004 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Teladocteladoc.com | 2008 | Yes | 17 | — |
| XATAxata.com | 2009 | No | 17 | — |
| Questraquestra.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| eGisticsegisticsinc.com | 2008 | Yes | 15 | — |
| Doppelgangerdoppelganger.com | 2007 | No | 10 | — |
| Arxan Technologiesarxan.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Silverskysilversky.com | 2000 | No | — | — |