Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Trilogy Equity Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 37.5% (3 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 13.7%–69.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-5.1 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
-15.3 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 52.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-31.3 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 68.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-26.8 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 64.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 42.9% (3 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 15.8%–75.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+29.7 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 13.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haiku Deckhaikudeck.com | 2011 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Pelagopelagohealth.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| FiREappsfireapps.com | 2008 | No | 77 | — |
| Mobilisafemobilisafe.com | 2011 | No | 69 | — |
| InstallFreeinstallfree.com | 2008 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Bevybevyinc.com | 2007 | No | 52 | — |
| Tigerstripe | 2005 | No | 41 | — |
| Holahola.org | 2008 | No | 31 | — |
| TellWisetellwise.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |