Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Trinity Ventures vs Kairos
45th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.2% (32 of 58 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 42.5%–67.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 46th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.9 pp
55.2% on 58 deals vs 45.2%
Vs median VC book
-1.7 pp
55.4% on 56 deals vs 57.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-16.5 pp
55.4% on 56 deals vs 71.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.5 pp
53.7% on 54 deals vs 69.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 56 of 58 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
55
Mean model percentile
68
Flagged deals
55/5 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 49.0% (24 of 49). 95% Wilson interval 35.6%–62.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+35.2 pp
49.0% on 49 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
58 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amalfi Semiconductoramalfi.com | 2003 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| scanRscanr.com | 2007 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Clearleapclearleap.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Trion Worldstrionworlds.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| RadiumOneradiumone.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Ripple TVripple.tv | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Wetpaintwetpaint-inc.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Skyfire Labsoperasoftware.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Perfect Marketperfectmarket.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| One Jacksononejackson.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| Codefast | 2005 | No | 92 | — |
| Lasso Medialasso.me | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| StackMobstackmob.com | 2011 | No | 91 | — |
| Dynamic Signaldynamicsignal.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Green Throttle Gamesgreenthrottle.com | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| Red Arilredaril.com | 2009 | No | 85 | — |
| mSpotmspot.com | 2005 | No | 83 | — |
| Jobsterjobster.com | 2005 | Yes | 83 | — |
| GridIron Systemsgridironsystems.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| Exalt Communicationsexaltcom.com | 2009 | No | 82 | — |
| Cloudscalingcloudscaling.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| BlueStripebluestripe.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Triangulatetriangulatecorp.com | 2010 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Hidden City Gameshiddencitygames.com | 2007 | No | 79 | — |
| Focusfocus.com | 2008 | No | 76 | — |
| Shenick Network Systemsshenick.com | 2005 | No | 75 | — |
| Affinity Labsaffinitylabs.com | 2006 | No | 72 | — |
| BlueTarp Financialbluetarp.com | 2007 | No | 70 | — |
| NextGreatPlacenextgreattrip.com | 2012 | Yes | 69 | — |
| dotloopdotloop.com | 2012 | No | 68 | — |
| ScaleArcscalearc.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Weddington Wayweddingtonway.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Bixbix.com | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| Lightstorm Networks | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| MaxPoint Interactivemaxpoint.com | 2010 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Mirage Networksmiragenetworks.com | 2005 | No | 64 | — |
| White Skywhitesky.com | 2006 | Yes | 63 | — |
| PlayFirstplayfirst.com | 2004 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Dataspindataspin.io | 2012 | No | 61 | — |
| Fluid Entertainmentfluidentertainment.com | 2008 | No | 61 | — |
| Cheerscheers.tech | 2013 | No | 56 | — |
| Aruba Networksarubanetworks.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Ellieellie.com | 2013 | No | 48 | — |
| Delivdeliv.co | 2013 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Rentlyticsrentlytics.com | 2013 | Yes | 45 | — |
| ProtectWiseprotectwise.com | 2013 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Avaakavaak.com | 2008 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Similarity Systems | 2005 | No | 38 | — |
| Bonfairebonfaire.com | 2012 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Endeka Groupendekagroup.com | 2011 | Yes | 29 | — |
| CR2cr2.com | 2005 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Cinario | 2006 | Yes | 21 | — |
| LoopNetloopnet.com | 2009 | No | 19 | — |
| Aeponaaepona.com | 2005 | Yes | 12 | — |
| MyNewPlacemynewplace.com | 2006 | Yes | 11 | — |
| Blue Nilebluenile.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |
| ID Analyticsidanalytics.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Armor5armor5.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Namo Medianamomedia.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Jama Softwarejamasoftware.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| JumpCamjumpcam.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |