Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
True Ventures vs Kairos
79th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 65.9% (60 of 91 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 55.7%–74.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 65th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+19.7 pp
65.9% on 91 deals vs 46.2%
Vs median VC book
+7.7 pp
65.9% on 91 deals vs 58.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.6 pp
65.9% on 91 deals vs 73.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-3.5 pp
65.9% on 91 deals vs 69.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
90
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
43/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 46.6% (27 of 58). 95% Wilson interval 34.3%–59.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+34.3 pp
46.6% on 58 deals vs 12.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
91 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urban Airshipurbanairship.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Bloomspotbloomspot.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Logglyloggly.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Remixation, Inc.showyou.com | 2007 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Tellotello.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Sendme, Incsendme.ng | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Smarterersmarterer.com | 2011 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Kiipkiip.me | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Deskdesk.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| HeadCase Humanufacturingheadcaselabs.com | 2006 | No | 97 | — |
| VoxPop Network Corporationvoxpop.tv | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| LoopFuseloopfuse.com | 2009 | No | 97 | — |
| B-Stock Solutionsbstocksolutions.com | 2009 | No | 97 | — |
| Spongepaysponge.com | 2010 | No | 96 | — |
| Collectacollecta.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Lexitylexity.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Fitbitfitbit.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| PayNearMepaynearme.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| gdgtgdgt.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| 3D Robotics3drobotics.com | 2012 | Yes | 95 | — |
| TastemakerXtastemakerx.com | 2012 | Yes | 94 | — |
| MessageMemessageme.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Stitch Labsstitchlabs.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| High Fidelityhighfidelity.io | 2013 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Typekittypekit.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Puppet Labspuppetlabs.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Apceraapcera.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Duo Securityduosecurity.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| DJZdjz.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Flintflintk12.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| 1000 Markets1000markets.com | 2009 | No | 91 | — |
| Milkmi.lk | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Schematic Labsschematiclabs.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Metamarketsmetamarkets.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Helpshifthelpshift.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| The Extraordinariesbeextra.org | 2010 | No | 90 | — |
| BrightRollbrightroll.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Hedvighedviginc.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| 20x20020x200.com | 2009 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Meebomeebo.com | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Message Busmessagebus.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Gigaomgigaom.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Yousicianyousician.com | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| Syncplicitysyncplicity.com | 2008 | No | 87 | — |
| MoviePassmoviepass.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Nodeablenodeable.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Neighborlandneighborland.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Dinamundodinamundo.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| Socialcastsocialcast.com | 2009 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Pose.compose.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| 410 Labs410labs.com | 2011 | No | 82 | — |
| MindBitesmindbites.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Spheregetsphere.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Concurrent Incconcurrentinc.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Spectrum Bridgespectrumbridge.com | 2008 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Finderyfindery.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Sifteosifteo.com | 2009 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Yobongoyobongo.com | 2011 | No | 80 | — |
| Dittodittowords.com | 2010 | No | 80 | — |
| CatchFreecatchfree.com | 2011 | No | 79 | — |
| appssavvyappssavvy.com | 2008 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Runscoperunscope.com | 2013 | Yes | 78 | — |
| SocialPandassocialpandas.com | 2012 | No | 78 | — |
| One Inc.whatis1.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Threefold Photoswebshots.com | 2012 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Infectiousinfectious.com | 2007 | No | 75 | — |
| Orchestrateorchestrate.io | 2013 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Bandcampbandcamp.com | 2010 | No | 69 | — |
| Betablecorp.betable.com | 2012 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Maya's Mommayasmom.com | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| Three Ringsthreerings.net | 2007 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Trippytrippy.com | 2011 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Madison Reed, Inc.madison-reed.com | 2013 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Datacraft Solutionsdatacraftsolutions.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| Space Pencilspacepencil.com | 2008 | Yes | 55 | — |
| SingleFeedsinglefeed.com | 2007 | No | 52 | — |
| Blue Bottle Coffeebluebottlecoffee.com | 2012 | Yes | 49 | — |
| GigaLogixgigalogix.com | 2007 | No | 47 | — |
| OpenROVopenrov.com | 2013 | No | 47 | — |
| WeGamewegame.com | 2007 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Pingpinpingpin.com.ishostedby.com | 2010 | No | 45 | — |
| ONtheAIRontheair.com | 2012 | No | 40 | — |
| Evident.ioevident.io | 2013 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Kurtosyskurtosys.com | 2006 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Access Systemsaccsys-inc.com | 2012 | No | 31 | — |
| Quake Labsquakelabs.com | 2012 | No | 30 | — |
| Neon Labsneon-lab.com | 2013 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Tinkercadtinkercad.com | 2011 | No | 27 | — |
| FREEjit | 2010 | No | 13 | — |
| Apply Financials Limited | 2012 | No | 12 | — |
| Splicesplice.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Stryking Entertainmentstryking.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Airstoneairstone.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |