Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Truffle Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-9.9 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 43.2%
Vs median VC book
-20.3 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 53.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-36.4 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 69.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-33.5 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 66.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
34
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.6 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RF-iT Solutionsrf-it-solutions.com | 2006 | No | 77 | — |
| Immune Targeting Systemsits-innovation.com | 2007 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Pharnextpharnext.com | 2010 | Yes | 48 | — |
| MyoPowers Medical Technologiesmyopowers.com | 2011 | No | 34 | — |
| Cytomics Pharmaceuticalscytomics.fr | 2006 | No | 34 | — |
| Utelutelworld.com | 2011 | No | 20 | — |
| SP3Hsp3h.fr | 2012 | Yes | 17 | — |
| PeopleCubepeoplecube.com | 2007 | No | 15 | — |
| Neovacsneovacs.fr | 2007 | No | 9 | — |
| BoosterMediaboostermedia.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |