Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Tugboat Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+6.0 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
-6.5 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 56.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-22.4 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 72.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-21.6 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 71.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+3.8 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 12.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ifeelgoodsifeelgoods.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Mamapediamamapedia.com | 2005 | No | 98 | Yes |
| Cuilcuil.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| SayNowsaynow.com | 2007 | No | 91 | — |
| Kennakennasecurity.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Education Elementsedelements.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| GoalSpring Financialgoalspring.com | 2010 | No | 73 | — |
| Mahoot Gamesmahoot.com | 2011 | Yes | 61 | — |
| SavvyMoney, Inc.savvymoney.com | 2010 | No | 40 | — |
| Atzipatyq.info | 2011 | No | 8 | — |
| Almindermynd.me | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Koozookoozoo.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |