Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
TVM Capital vs Kairos
20th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 43.5% (10 of 23 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.6%–63.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 32nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+1.4 pp
43.5% on 23 deals vs 42.0%
Vs median VC book
-8.2 pp
43.5% on 23 deals vs 51.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-23.0 pp
43.5% on 23 deals vs 66.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-24.3 pp
40.0% on 20 deals vs 64.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
50
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 19). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–16.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-13.5 pp
0.0% on 19 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
23 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concert Pharmaceuticalsconcertpharma.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| BitWavebitwavesemiconductor.com | 2004 | No | 92 | — |
| Arterisarteris.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Anchor Therapeuticsanchortx.com | 2010 | No | 90 | — |
| Ubidyneubidyne.com | 2005 | No | 85 | — |
| Ascent Therapeuticsascentrx.com | 2007 | No | 81 | — |
| Aventeonaventeon.com | 2004 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Amnisamnis.com | 2005 | No | 54 | — |
| Proteon Therapeuticsproteontherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Silicon Hivesiliconhive.com | 2007 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Hymitehymite.com | 2004 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Cerenis Therapeuticscerenis.com | 2006 | No | 49 | — |
| Cambridge Broadband Networkscbnl.com | 2006 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Impress Software Solutions | 2005 | No | 45 | — |
| Probiodrugprobiodrug.de | 2009 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Winbox Technologieswinbox.ag | 2008 | No | 41 | — |
| Albireoalbireopharma.com | 2008 | No | 25 | — |
| RenaMed Biologics | 2006 | No | 23 | — |
| SpePharmspepharm.com | 2008 | No | 23 | — |
| Definiensdefiniens.com | 2012 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Vivendy Therapeuticsvivendy.ch | 2008 | No | 15 | — |
| VPIsystemsvpisystems.com | 2005 | No | 8 | — |
| CommProvecommprove.com | 2008 | Yes | 6 | — |
| Ixchelsisixchelsis.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Kaneq Bioscience | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |