Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

Unitus Seed Fund vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 80.0% (4 of 5 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 37.6%–96.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 51.1%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 5.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

+28.9 pp

80.0% on 5 deals vs 51.1%

Vs median VC book

+12.4 pp

80.0% on 5 deals vs 67.6%

Vs top-quartile VC

-1.7 pp

80.0% on 5 deals vs 81.7%

Vs Y Combinator

+3.7 pp

80.0% on 5 deals vs 76.3%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

5 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
Villgro Innovation Marketingvillgrostores.com	2012	Yes	51	—
Hippocampus Learning Centreshlc.org.in	2012	Yes	31	—
Bodhicrew Servicesbodhicrew.com	2012	No	15	—
Jack On Blockjackonblock.com	2013	Unobserved	—	—
Caravancaravancraft.com	2013	Yes	—	—
iSTARistarindia.com	2013	Yes	—	—