Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Updata Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (6 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.4%–74.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+6.4 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 43.6%
Vs median VC book
-3.9 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 53.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.9 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 68.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-19.3 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 69.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
47
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+18.4 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 15.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Video Blocksvideoblocks.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Appfluent Technologyappfluent.com | 2005 | No | 80 | — |
| Bridge Energy Groupbridgeenergygroup.com | 2011 | No | 75 | — |
| Pet360pet360.com | 2011 | No | 63 | — |
| Secure Software | 2005 | No | 50 | — |
| Nimayanimaya.com | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Harmony Information Systemsharmonyis.com | 2006 | Yes | 42 | — |
| ForeSeeforesee.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| LogiAnalyticslogianalytics.com | 2007 | Yes | 31 | — |
| OrderMotionordermotion.com | 2006 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Spectrum K12 School Solutionsspectrumk12.com | 2007 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Viewpointviewpointcs.com | 2010 | Yes | 10 | — |
| Nintexnintex.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |