Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Upfront Ventures vs Kairos
83rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 77.8% (21 of 27 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 59.2%–89.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 83rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+30.4 pp
77.8% on 27 deals vs 47.4%
Vs median VC book
+20.1 pp
80.8% on 26 deals vs 60.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+4.2 pp
80.8% on 26 deals vs 76.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+11.0 pp
80.8% on 26 deals vs 69.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 26 of 27 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
25
Mean model percentile
80
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (5 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 15.2%–58.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.1 pp
33.3% on 15 deals vs 13.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
27 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RingRevenueringrevenue.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Burstlyburstly.com | 2010 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| mFoundrymfoundry.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| awe.smawe.sm | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Maker Studiosmakerstudios.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Adlyad.ly | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Little Black Baglittleblackbag.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Seriouslyseriously.com | 2013 | Yes | 93 | — |
| MyTimemytime.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| ObjectLabsmongolab.com | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| CTSpacectspace.eu | 2006 | No | 87 | — |
| Digital Air Strikedigitalairstrike.com | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Pose.compose.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Pathmatics (formerly Adomic)pathmatics.com | 2013 | Yes | 81 | — |
| TeleFlipteleflip.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| MakeSpacemakespace.com | 2013 | Yes | 79 | — |
| GoodRxgoodrx.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| DailyLookdailylook.com | 2013 | No | 71 | — |
| mPay Gatewaympaygateway.com | 2008 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Wave Crest Groupwavecrest.gi | 2010 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Actimagineactimagine.com | 2006 | No | 60 | — |
| HealthDataInsightshealthdatainsights.com | 2005 | No | 59 | — |
| Bill Me Laterbillmelater.com | 2006 | Yes | 56 | — |
| ZestCashzestcash.com | 2011 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Skyline Financialskylinehomeloans.com | 2010 | No | 22 | — |
| Kyriba Corporationkyriba.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| uPartsuparts.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Epoxyepoxy.tv | 2013 | Yes | — | — |