Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
U.S. Venture Partners (USVP) vs Kairos
61st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.3% (47 of 82 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 46.5%–67.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 54th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+14.3 pp
57.3% on 82 deals vs 43.0%
Vs median VC book
+0.9 pp
54.5% on 77 deals vs 53.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.8 pp
54.5% on 77 deals vs 68.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-16.3 pp
51.5% on 68 deals vs 67.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 77 of 82 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
77
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 32.9% (24 of 73). 95% Wilson interval 23.2%–44.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+19.0 pp
32.9% on 73 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
82 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Readyforcereadyforce.com | 2010 | No | 98 | — |
| Hooked Media Grouphookedmediagroup.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Gamookgamook.com | 2008 | No | 96 | — |
| PodTechpodtech.net | 2006 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Karmaspherekarmasphere.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Appthorityappthority.com | 2012 | No | 94 | — |
| Akros Siliconakrossilicon.com | 2005 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Inspire Medical Systemsinspiresleep.com | 2009 | No | 92 | — |
| Redwood Systemsredwoodsys.com | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Xirrusxirrus.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Facteryfactery.net | 2009 | No | 88 | — |
| Cleave Biosciencescleavebio.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Pivotal Systemspivotalsys.com | 2006 | No | 86 | — |
| BPTbpt.co.il | 2009 | No | 86 | — |
| SocialShieldsocialshield.com | 2010 | No | 86 | — |
| netZentry | 2005 | No | 86 | — |
| X1 Technologiesx1.com | 2005 | No | 85 | — |
| ClickShiftclickshift.co.uk | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| LimeLifelimelife.com | 2005 | Yes | 83 | — |
| MeetMe, Inc.meetme.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Winsterwinster.com | 2006 | No | 79 | — |
| Clear Shape Technologiesclearshape.com | 2005 | No | 78 | — |
| Asempra Technologies | 2006 | No | 77 | — |
| SiBEAMsibeam.com | 2004 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Trovixtrovix.com | 2005 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Intermolecularintermolecular.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Simpirica Spinesimpirica.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Montalvo Systems | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| Act-On Softwareact-on.com | 2010 | Yes | 74 | — |
| StarMobilestarmobileinc.com | 2013 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Smartlingsmartling.com | 2010 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Effector Therapeuticseffector.com | 2013 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Gear6gear6.com | 2006 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Victriovictrio.com | 2010 | No | 70 | — |
| Nanosolarnanosolar.com | 2003 | Yes | 69 | — |
| PacketHopdirect.sri.com | 2005 | No | 69 | — |
| MOBITRAC | 2005 | No | 65 | — |
| Ponte Solutions | 2007 | No | 65 | — |
| M-Factorm-factor.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Inari Medicalinarimedical.com | 2013 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Optichronoptichron.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| National Banananationalbanana.com | 2007 | No | 59 | — |
| VeriWaveveriwave.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Zannelzannel.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| CardioKinetixcardiokinetix.com | 2008 | No | 55 | — |
| Yoombafiercevoip.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Articulinx Inc.articulinx.com | 2012 | No | 53 | — |
| Klocworkklocwork.com | 2003 | Yes | 51 | — |
| LV Sensorslvsensors.com | 2007 | No | 50 | — |
| W5 Networksw5networks.com | 2005 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Aptus Endosystemsaptusendo.com | 2010 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Intuity Medicalintuitymedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 46 | — |
| CiraNovaciranova.com | 2003 | No | 46 | — |
| Marketocracymarketocracy.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Instantisinstantis.com | 2006 | No | 44 | — |
| Piczopiczo.com | 2007 | No | 44 | — |
| T-Networkstnetworksinc.com | 2005 | No | 42 | — |
| 4INFO4info.com | 2005 | Yes | 41 | — |
| MaxLinearmaxlinear.com | 2007 | No | 39 | — |
| JellyCloudventurebeat.com | 2008 | No | 39 | — |
| Kleerkleer.com | 2008 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Superprotonicsuperprotonic.com | 2007 | Yes | 34 | — |
| OncoMed Pharmaceuticalsoncomed.com | 2008 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Axiom Microdevicesaxiom-micro.com | 2007 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Raven Biotechnologies | 2003 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Force10 Networksforce10networks.com | 2003 | Yes | 26 | — |
| ApniCureapnicure.com | 2013 | Yes | 26 | — |
| T-RAM Semiconductort-ram.com | 2005 | No | 24 | — |
| Neoconixneoconix.com | 2006 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Synforasynfora.com | 2004 | Yes | 21 | — |
| Teraneticsteranetics.com | 2006 | Yes | 21 | — |
| Cogency Softwarecogencysoft.com | 2005 | No | 20 | — |
| Electric Cloudelectric-cloud.com | 2004 | Yes | 17 | — |
| BeVocalbevocal.com | 2005 | No | 15 | — |
| MontaVista Softwaremvista.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Intersect ENTintersectent.com | 2010 | Yes | 9 | — |
| ON24on24.com | 2004 | No | 7 | — |
| Spokespoke.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| EasilyDoeasilydo.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| CipherMaxciphermaxinc.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Sanarus Medicalsanarus.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Sierra Monolithicsmonolithics.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |
| Agility Communicationsjdsu.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |