Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Valhalla Partners vs Kairos
72nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (15 of 21 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 50.0%–86.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 77th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.2 pp
71.4% on 21 deals vs 44.2%
Vs median VC book
+15.7 pp
71.4% on 21 deals vs 55.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+1.1 pp
71.4% on 21 deals vs 70.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.2 pp
71.4% on 21 deals vs 69.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
21
Mean model percentile
75
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 17.6% (3 of 17). 95% Wilson interval 6.2%–41.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.0 pp
17.6% on 17 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
21 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Handshakezhandshakez.com | 2013 | Yes | 98 | — |
| VisualCVvisualcv.com | 2008 | No | 98 | — |
| SolidFiresolidfire.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| App47app47.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| EnterpriseDBenterprisedb.com | 2005 | Yes | 91 | — |
| MiserWaremiserware.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Nirvanix | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Qumuloqumulo.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| ShopSociallyshopsocially.com | 2010 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Videologyvideologygroup.com | 2008 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Paratureparature.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Clipikclipik.com | 2011 | No | 80 | — |
| Dataupiadataupia.com | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| RealOps | 2005 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Automated Insightsautomatedinsights.com | 2010 | Yes | 72 | — |
| GetWellNetwork, Inc.getwellnetwork.com | 2005 | No | 53 | — |
| Secure Software | 2005 | No | 50 | — |
| ExaDigmexadigm.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Rivermine Softwarerivermine.com | 2005 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Three Stage Mediathreestage.com | 2006 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Geomagicgeomagic.com | 2008 | No | 24 | — |