Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Vanguard Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 37.5% (3 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 13.7%–69.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-5.1 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
-18.1 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 51.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-32.2 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 65.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-30.1 pp
40.0% on 5 deals vs 70.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 6 of 8 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
55
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+10.2 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 14.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browster | 2006 | No | 98 | — |
| Casabicasabi.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Capella Photonicscapellainc.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| DVDPlaydvdplay.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Konarka Technologieskonarkatech.com | 2004 | No | 20 | — |
| Radiance | 2008 | No | 14 | — |
| Sylantrosylantro.com | 2000 | No | — | — |
| Vormetricvormetric.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |