Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
VantagePoint Capital Partners vs Kairos
34th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 48.9% (23 of 47 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.3%–62.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 41st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+7.1 pp
48.9% on 47 deals vs 41.8%
Vs median VC book
-1.0 pp
50.0% on 46 deals vs 51.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-16.1 pp
50.0% on 46 deals vs 66.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-23.5 pp
43.2% on 37 deals vs 66.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 46 of 47 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
46
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.9% (9 of 43). 95% Wilson interval 11.4%–35.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.7 pp
20.9% on 43 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
47 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlertMealertme.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Adura Technologiesaduratech.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Cobalt Technologiescobalttech.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| bluepulsebluepulse.com | 2007 | No | 89 | — |
| ByteLightbytelight.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Livescribelivescribe.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Nexsannexsan.com | 2003 | No | 84 | — |
| IntelePeerintelepeer.com | 2008 | Yes | 78 | — |
| InvestLabinvestlab.com | 2012 | No | 78 | — |
| Exavio | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| MiaSolémiasole.com | 2004 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Healthline Networkshealthline.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Ostaraostara.com | 2008 | No | 76 | — |
| EndPlayendplay.com | 2012 | No | 75 | — |
| ReachLocalreachlocal.com | 2004 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Neuraltus Pharmaceuticalsneuraltus.com | 2009 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Allvoicesallvoices.com | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| Direct Flow Medicaldirectflowmedical.com | 2007 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Masala | 2007 | No | 62 | — |
| Metara | 2005 | No | 61 | — |
| 3VR3vr.com | 2006 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Oxford Semiconductoroxsemi.com | 2006 | No | 58 | — |
| Mascomamascoma.com | 2006 | Yes | 56 | — |
| BrightSource Energybrightsourceenergy.com | 2006 | Yes | 52 | — |
| AllBusiness.comallbusiness.com | 2004 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Santur Corporationsanturcorp.com | 2005 | Yes | 50 | — |
| InnoPath Softwareinnopath.com | 2004 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Grocery Shopping Networkgroceryshopping.net | 2007 | No | 47 | — |
| Air2Webair2web.com | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Blue Eggblueegg.com | 2006 | No | 44 | — |
| Cornicecorniceco.com | 2004 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Trading Metricstradingmetrics.com | 2007 | No | 33 | — |
| 3Guppies | 2006 | No | 33 | — |
| Weblo.comweblo.com | 2007 | No | 33 | — |
| Blaze Public Relationsblazepr.com | 2005 | No | 24 | — |
| Liquid Lightllchemical.com | 2011 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Gemin X Pharmaceuticalsgeminx.com | 2008 | Yes | 23 | — |
| AXSUN Technologiesaxsun.com | 2006 | No | 23 | — |
| REAC Fuelreacfuel.com | 2010 | No | 22 | — |
| Vistovisto.com | 2003 | Yes | 20 | — |
| ChipXchipx.com | 2004 | No | 20 | — |
| FloDesign Wind Turbinefdwt.com | 2010 | No | 20 | — |
| Magink display technologiesmagink.com | 2004 | Yes | 17 | — |
| TouchTunes Interactive Networkstouchtunes.com | 2011 | No | 15 | — |
| Meriton Networksmeriton.com | 2005 | No | 7 | — |
| Datran Mediadatranmedia.com | 2005 | No | 1 | — |
| Nitronexnitronex.com | 2001 | No | — | — |