Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
i/o Ventures vs Kairos
13th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 37.5% (6 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.5%–61.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 20th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-8.1 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 45.6%
Vs median VC book
-20.4 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 57.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-35.9 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 73.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-39.3 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 76.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 63.6% (7 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 35.4%–84.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+52.3 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appratsapprats.com | 2010 | No | 89 | — |
| Appstores.comappstores.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Backplanethebackplane.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Cozycozy.co | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| vidIQvidiq.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| ApptheGame - Swoopt Daily Fantasy Sportsswoopt.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Pieceablepieceable.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Appsperseappsperse.com | 2012 | No | 76 | — |
| Ravnravn.com | 2011 | No | 75 | — |
| Touch of Moderntouchofmodern.com | 2010 | No | 73 | — |
| Anomaly Innovationsanoma.ly | 2010 | No | 66 | — |
| Cortexcortex.io | 2011 | No | 66 | — |
| CodeEvalcodeeval.com | 2011 | No | 64 | — |
| PrePayprepayapp.com | 2011 | No | 60 | — |
| Appbistroappbistro.com | 2010 | Yes | 43 | — |
| damntheradiodamntheradio.com | 2010 | No | 33 | — |