Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Ventures West vs Kairos
25th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (8 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 28.0%–72.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 40th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+7.0 pp
50.0% on 16 deals vs 43.0%
Vs median VC book
+0.6 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 52.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-14.0 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 67.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.4 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 66.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 15 of 16 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
61
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (3 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 7.0%–45.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.3 pp
20.0% on 15 deals vs 14.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeugma Systemszeugmasystems.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Alder Biopharmaceuticalsalderbio.com | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Fresco Microchipfrescomicrochip.com | 2005 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Spectra7 Microsystemsspectra7.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Presidio Pharmaceuticalspresidiopharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Viigoviigo.com | 2007 | Yes | 65 | — |
| SWITCH Materialsswitchmaterials.com | 2010 | No | 61 | — |
| Aquinox Pharmaceuticalsaqxpharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Double-Take Software Canadatimespring.com | 2005 | No | 60 | — |
| Osprey Pharmaceuticals USAospreypharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Dabble DBdabbledb.com | 2006 | No | 52 | — |
| Avokia | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Marquimarqui.com | 2006 | No | 38 | — |
| QuIC Financial Technologiesquic.com | 2006 | No | 28 | — |
| MacroGenicsmacrogenics.com | 2006 | No | 7 | — |
| Serveronqualitrolcorp.com | 2001 | No | — | — |