Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Versant Ventures vs Kairos
59th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 62.9% (22 of 35 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 46.3%–76.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 62nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+17.8 pp
62.9% on 35 deals vs 45.1%
Vs median VC book
+8.3 pp
64.7% on 34 deals vs 56.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-6.9 pp
64.7% on 34 deals vs 71.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.4 pp
66.7% on 33 deals vs 64.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 34 of 35 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
34
Mean model percentile
54
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (7 of 28). 95% Wilson interval 12.7%–43.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.6 pp
25.0% on 28 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
35 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groove Biopharmagroovebiopharma.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Veracyteveracyte.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Cerephexcerephex.com | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| Rennoviarennovia.com | 2009 | Yes | 90 | — |
| LensX Laserslensxlasers.com | 2009 | No | 81 | — |
| Coteracotera.co | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Benvenue Medicalbenvenuemedical.com | 2008 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Spark Diagnostics | 2012 | No | 77 | — |
| RedBrick Healthredbrickhealth.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| NeoVistaneovistainc.com | 2006 | Yes | 72 | — |
| PhaseRxphaserx.com | 2008 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Okairosokairos.com | 2010 | No | 67 | — |
| Inari Medicalinarimedical.com | 2013 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Innovative Pulmonary Solutionsinnovativepulmonary.com | 2012 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Fluidigmfluidigm.com | 2004 | No | 58 | — |
| Minerva Surgicalminervasurgical.com | 2012 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Kythera Biopharmaceuticalskytherabiopharma.com | 2005 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Cardiac Conceptscardiacconcepts.com | 2008 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Audentes Therapeuticsaudentestx.com | 2013 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Impedance Cardiology Systems | 2006 | No | 53 | — |
| Flexion Therapeuticsflexiontherapeutics.com | 2009 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Cameron Healthcameronhealth.com | 2008 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Intuity Medicalintuitymedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 46 | — |
| WaveTec Visionwavetecvision.com | 2007 | Yes | 46 | — |
| APT Pharmaceuticalsaptbio.com | 2007 | Yes | 41 | — |
| AcuFocusacufocus.com | 2007 | No | 40 | — |
| GenSight Biologicsgensight-biologics.com | 2013 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Neurotechneurotechusa.com | 2006 | No | 22 | — |
| Ambrxambrx.com | 2009 | No | 19 | — |
| Clovis Oncologyclovisoncology.com | 2009 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Synosia Therapeuticssynosia.com | 2007 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Five Prime Therapeuticsfiveprime.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |
| Vaccsysvaccsys.com | 2008 | No | 11 | — |
| NovaSysnovasyshealth.com | 2008 | No | 9 | — |
| Glaukosglaukos.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Inceptus Medicalinceptusmedical.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |