Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Vertex Venture Capital vs Kairos
52nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (15 of 25 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.7%–76.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 59th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.3 pp
60.0% on 25 deals vs 43.7%
Vs median VC book
+5.2 pp
60.0% on 25 deals vs 54.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-9.2 pp
60.0% on 25 deals vs 69.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.4 pp
60.0% on 25 deals vs 65.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
24
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 22.7% (5 of 22). 95% Wilson interval 10.1%–43.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+9.3 pp
22.7% on 22 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
25 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeugma Systemszeugmasystems.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Correlsensecorrelsense.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Wazewaze.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Percellopercello.com | 2008 | No | 85 | — |
| SolarEdgesolaredge.us | 2009 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Perfecto Mobileperfectomobile.com | 2007 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Novaforanovafora.com | 2007 | No | 78 | — |
| Commex Technologiescommextech.com | 2007 | Yes | 78 | — |
| ComAbilitycomability.com | 2007 | No | 75 | — |
| ASOCSasocstech.com | 2005 | No | 73 | — |
| Neuralitic Systemsneuralitic.com | 2008 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Aternityaternity.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Meilelemeilele.com | 2012 | Yes | 52 | — |
| MultiPhymulti-phy.com | 2010 | No | 49 | — |
| VibeSecvibesec.com | 2009 | No | 36 | — |
| Press-sensepress-sense.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Sidensesidense.com | 2010 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Genoa Color Technologies | 2005 | No | 22 | — |
| Ethos Networksethos-networks.com | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| CogniTenscognitens.com | 2005 | No | 20 | — |
| APProtect | 2006 | No | 18 | — |
| Inside Secureinsidesecure.com | 2005 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Wisairwisair.com | 2006 | Yes | 7 | — |
| NewAuto Video Technologychinadigitalvideo.com | 2008 | Yes | 6 | — |
| Clearbridge Biomedicsclearbridgebiomedics.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Breadtripbreadtrip.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |