Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
VI Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (8 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 32.6%–78.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+12.8 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 44.4%
Vs median VC book
+2.6 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 54.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-12.1 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 69.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.7 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 67.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 23.1% (3 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–50.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+10.0 pp
23.1% on 13 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delenex Therapeuticsdelenex.com | 2010 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Nexthinknexthink.com | 2007 | No | 94 | — |
| Time Solutions Ltdtimecamp.com | 2008 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Covalys Biosciences | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Kuros Biosurgerykuros.ch | 2005 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Xigenxigenpharma.com | 2005 | No | 68 | — |
| Endosenseendosense.com | 2009 | No | 65 | — |
| Activaeroactivaero.de | 2009 | Yes | 64 | — |
| CeQurcequrcorp.com | 2010 | No | 63 | — |
| Visonys | 2006 | No | 61 | — |
| NovaShuntnovashunt.ch | 2011 | No | 51 | — |
| NemeriXnemerix.com | 2004 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Spinelabspinelab.com | 2009 | Yes | 29 | — |
| ESBATechesbatech.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |