Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Village Ventures vs Kairos
52nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (16 of 28 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.1%–73.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 57th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.6 pp
57.1% on 28 deals vs 41.5%
Vs median VC book
+7.8 pp
59.3% on 27 deals vs 51.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.7 pp
59.3% on 27 deals vs 66.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-6.1 pp
56.0% on 25 deals vs 62.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 27 of 28 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
27
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
32/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 22.2% (6 of 27). 95% Wilson interval 10.6%–40.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+8.6 pp
22.2% on 27 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
28 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DigiSynddigisynd.com | 2008 | No | 99 | Yes |
| OpenLogicopenlogic.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Persystent Technologiespersystent.com | 2003 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Databanqdatabanq.com | 2006 | No | 95 | — |
| Dedicated Devices | 2004 | Yes | 94 | — |
| IZEA, Inc.izea.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Metamarketsmetamarkets.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Mophiemophie.com | 2006 | No | 90 | — |
| Babblebabble.com | 2009 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Daz 3ddaz3d.com | 2007 | No | 85 | — |
| Makeover Solutionsmakeoversolutions.com | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| OnDeckondeck.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Zipmarkzipmark.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| BlueTarp Financialbluetarp.com | 2007 | No | 70 | — |
| TopTenREVIEWStoptenreviews.com | 2008 | Yes | 69 | — |
| LicenseStreamlicensestream.com | 2007 | Yes | 66 | — |
| NativeEnergynativeenergy.com | 2007 | No | 64 | — |
| Pump Audiopumpaudio.com | 2007 | No | 63 | — |
| Health Guru Media Inc.healthguru.com | 2007 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Outside.inoutside.in | 2007 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Handmarkhandmark.com | 2005 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Klusterkluster.com | 2008 | No | 56 | — |
| GetWellNetwork, Inc.getwellnetwork.com | 2005 | No | 53 | — |
| Insight Gurutrefis.com | 2010 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Purchpurch.com | 2008 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Mixaloomixaloo.com | 2007 | No | 42 | — |
| Quirkyquirky.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| EatingWelleatingwell.com | 2002 | No | — | — |