Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Vista Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.6% (5 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.7%–81.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+12.8 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 42.8%
Vs median VC book
-2.0 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 52.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-16.7 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.5 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 65.5%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 8 of 9 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
54
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+18.6 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 14.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Force Informationmarketforce.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Altos Design Automationaltos-da.com | 2007 | No | 92 | — |
| Indicative Software | 2006 | No | 73 | — |
| Rally Softwarerallydev.com | 2006 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Strataviastratavia.com | 2005 | Yes | 45 | — |
| MX Logicmxlogic.com | 2006 | No | 35 | — |
| Solavistasolavista.com | 2008 | No | 27 | — |
| SiGe Semiconductorsige.com | 2005 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Lefthand Networkslefthandnetworks.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |