Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Vivo Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 39.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+4.8 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 39.6%
Vs median VC book
-6.3 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 50.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-22.4 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 66.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-6.2 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 56.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
57
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+11.3 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPNIAcapnia.com | 2004 | No | 87 | — |
| Carbylan Therapeuticscarbylan.com | 2007 | No | 77 | — |
| Rempex Pharmaceuticalsrempexpharma.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| Sagent Pharmaceuticalssagentpharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 67 | — |
| InteKrinintekrin.com | 2007 | Yes | 64 | — |
| NextWave Pharmaceuticalsnextwavepharma.com | 2007 | No | 61 | — |
| APT Pharmaceuticalsaptbio.com | 2007 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Revance Therapeuticsrevance.com | 2007 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Transcept Pharmaceuticalstransoral.com | 2007 | No | 9 | — |