Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Voyager Capital vs Kairos
37th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.0% (11 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 34.2%–74.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 48th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+11.0 pp
55.0% on 20 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
-0.3 pp
55.0% on 20 deals vs 55.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-14.9 pp
55.0% on 20 deals vs 69.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-16.4 pp
52.6% on 19 deals vs 69.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
19
Mean model percentile
77
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (5 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 15.2%–58.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.3 pp
33.3% on 15 deals vs 13.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Placecastplacecast.net | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| WellnessFXwellnessfx.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Ontelaontela.com | 2006 | No | 96 | — |
| Chirpifychirpify.com | 2012 | Yes | 96 | — |
| MindSumomindsumo.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| Sensys Networkssensysnetworks.com | 2008 | No | 89 | — |
| Autogridauto-grid.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Attenexattenex.com | 2005 | No | 84 | — |
| Lighter Capitallightercapital.com | 2010 | No | 83 | — |
| Ayla Networksaylanetworks.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Act-On Softwareact-on.com | 2010 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Bonanzabonanza.com | 2010 | No | 74 | — |
| Nusym Technologynusym.com | 2008 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Yaptayapta.com | 2007 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Covariocovario.com | 2007 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Valchemy | 2005 | No | 66 | — |
| Verari Systemsverari.com | 2003 | Yes | 63 | — |
| GMIgmi-mr.com | 2006 | No | 54 | — |
| Melodeonutsie.com | 2007 | No | 19 | — |
| BlueBox Groupbluebox.it | 2013 | Yes | — | — |