Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
vSpring Capital vs Kairos
36th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 52.6% (10 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 31.7%–72.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 48th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.6 pp
52.6% on 19 deals vs 42.1%
Vs median VC book
+0.0 pp
52.6% on 19 deals vs 52.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-14.3 pp
52.6% on 19 deals vs 67.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-12.3 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 62.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
19
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 19). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–16.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-13.5 pp
0.0% on 19 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LignUplignup.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Cymphonixcymphonix.com | 2005 | No | 94 | — |
| Exagen Diagnosticsavisetest.com | 2004 | Yes | 93 | — |
| S5 Wireless | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Axial Biotechaxialbiotech.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| FamilyLinkfamilylink.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| The American Academytheamericanacademy.com | 2009 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Reachablereachable.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Coherex Medicalcoherex.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| nanoMRnanomr.com | 2008 | Yes | 69 | — |
| World Vital Recordsworldvitalrecords.com | 2007 | No | 68 | — |
| Athena Feminine Technologiesathenaft.com | 2009 | No | 65 | — |
| BioMicro Systemsbiomicro.com | 2007 | No | 58 | — |
| Levantalevanta.com | 2007 | No | 55 | — |
| Cogitocogitoinc.com | 2005 | No | 51 | — |
| Lineagenlineagen.com | 2008 | Yes | 50 | — |
| 3point5.com3point5.com | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Q Holdingsqthera.com | 2008 | No | 35 | — |
| Zonderzonder.com | 2007 | No | 28 | — |