Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Vulcan Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 63.6% (7 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.4%–84.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+17.8 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 45.9%
Vs median VC book
+2.3 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 57.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.8 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 73.8%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.8 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 59.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 10 of 11 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+38.2 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 11.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audienceaudience.com | 2009 | No | 87 | — |
| Evrievri.com | 2008 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Smith & Tinkersmithandtinker.com | 2009 | No | 72 | — |
| AltaRock Energyaltarockenergy.com | 2008 | No | 62 | — |
| BiPar Sciencesbiparsciences.com | 2004 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Gistgist.com | 2009 | Yes | 51 | — |
| ZoomInfozoominfo.com | 2004 | No | 40 | — |
| Radar Networksradarnetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Blue Nilebluenile.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |
| Freedom Financial Networkfreedomfinancialnetwork.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Wirewire.im | 2013 | Yes | — | — |