Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Walden Venture Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 62.5% (5 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.6%–86.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+18.8 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 43.7%
Vs median VC book
+7.7 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 54.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-6.2 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 68.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-8.7 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 71.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (3 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 18.8%–81.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+36.2 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 13.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palamidapalamida.com | 2005 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Geniusgenius.com | 2006 | Yes | 95 | — |
| The Clymbtheclymb.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Comedy.comcomedy.com | 2008 | No | 80 | — |
| Telekenextelekenex.com | 2007 | No | 78 | — |
| BlueLithiumbluelithium.com | 2005 | No | 75 | — |
| PowerCloud Systemspowercloudsystems.com | 2010 | Yes | 67 | — |
| MeeVeemeevee.com | 2005 | Yes | 47 | — |