Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Wellington Partners vs Kairos
35th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 52.9% (18 of 34 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 36.7%–68.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 43rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+8.2 pp
52.9% on 34 deals vs 44.8%
Vs median VC book
-3.9 pp
51.5% on 33 deals vs 55.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.9 pp
51.5% on 33 deals vs 70.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-18.7 pp
48.4% on 31 deals vs 67.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 33 of 34 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
32
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.5% (5 of 27). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–36.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.1 pp
18.5% on 27 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
34 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| amiandoamiando.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Adconion Media Groupadconion.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Proximicproximic.com | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| GOOMgoom.fr | 2009 | No | 95 | — |
| Astaroastaro.com | 2003 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Software Cellular Networkscn.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Collaxcollax.com | 2005 | No | 90 | — |
| YPlanyplanapp.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Enecsysenecsys.com | 2009 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Implanetimplanet.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Sapienssapiensneuro.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Heliatekheliatek.com | 2009 | No | 84 | — |
| EyeEmeyeem.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| SumAllsumall.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Hailohailocab.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Aloqaaloqa.com | 2009 | No | 82 | — |
| SAFE ID Solutionssafe-id.de | 2005 | No | 81 | — |
| Quanta Fluid Solutionsquantafs.com | 2009 | No | 72 | — |
| Swooposwoopo.com | 2006 | No | 70 | — |
| Readmillreadmill.com | 2012 | No | 69 | — |
| VoiceObjectsvoiceobjects.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Cavendish Kineticscavendish-kinetics.com | 2006 | No | 65 | — |
| Negevtech | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| SENSIMEDsensimed.ch | 2007 | Yes | 41 | — |
| HowDohow.do | 2012 | No | 32 | — |
| immatics biotechnologiesimmatics.net | 2004 | Yes | 31 | — |
| AZZURRO Semiconductorsazzurro-semiconductors.com | 2010 | No | 27 | — |
| NexWave Solutionsnexwave-solutions.fr | 2005 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Eastbeameastbeam.co.jp | 2006 | No | 22 | — |
| Orcan Energyorcan-energy.com | 2013 | No | 22 | — |
| Oreconorecon.com | 2008 | No | 16 | — |
| Evolvaevolva.com | 2009 | No | 16 | — |
| Middle Peak Medicalmiddlepeakmedical.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Wool and the Gangwoolandthegang.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| EnOceanenocean.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |