Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Wheatley Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+12.4 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 44.8%
Vs median VC book
+11.9 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 54.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.4 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 69.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.6 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 69.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 6 of 7 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
49
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+3.0 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced BioHealingabh.com | 2005 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Pando Networkspandonetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| NovaRay Medicalnovaraymedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Certpoint Systemscertpointsystems.com | 2011 | No | 44 | — |
| Searchandise Commercesearchandise.net | 2008 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Visiprisevisiprise.com | 2005 | No | 9 | — |
| GENBANDgenband.com | 2001 | No | — | — |