Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
White Star Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.6% (5 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.7%–81.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+8.2 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 47.3%
Vs median VC book
-5.9 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 61.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.3 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 76.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.6 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 71.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
76
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sciencescience-inc.com | 2011 | Yes | 98 | — |
| LaunchRocklaunchrock.com | 2011 | No | 96 | — |
| TopFloortopfloor.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| Dollar Shave Clubdollarshaveclub.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Execution Labsexecutionlabs.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Betaworksbetaworks.com | 2008 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Ludialudia.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| Busbudbusbud.com | 2013 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Ellieellie.com | 2013 | No | 48 | — |