Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Woodside Fund vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 77.8% (7 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 45.3%–93.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+35.0 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 42.8%
Vs median VC book
+23.0 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 52.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+8.3 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+9.5 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 65.5%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 8 of 9 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 11.1% (1 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–43.5%.
Vs exit base rate
-3.6 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 14.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nusym Technologynusym.com | 2008 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Analogix Semiconductoranalogix.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Azaire Networksazairenet.com | 2006 | No | 71 | — |
| Athena Design Systemsathenadesign.com | 2007 | No | 69 | — |
| Intelleflexintelleflex.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Matisse Networksmatissenetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 59 | — |
| SS8 Networksss8.com | 2006 | Yes | 58 | — |
| VeriWaveveriwave.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Intaliointalio.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |