Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Worldview Technology Partners vs Kairos
60th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 65.0% (13 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.3%–81.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 71st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+22.9 pp
65.0% on 20 deals vs 42.1%
Vs median VC book
+15.3 pp
66.7% on 18 deals vs 51.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+2.0 pp
66.7% on 18 deals vs 64.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-17.2 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 74.4%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 18 of 20 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
52
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 10.0% (2 of 20). 95% Wilson interval 2.8%–30.1%.
Vs exit base rate
-5.5 pp
10.0% on 20 deals vs 15.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WaveMakerwavemaker.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| QSecureqsecure.com | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| VoloMediavolomedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Zoovezoove.com | 2006 | No | 79 | — |
| oomaooma.com | 2005 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Stretchstretchinc.com | 2006 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Emergentemergent.sh | 2004 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Miradiamiradia.com | 2004 | Yes | 53 | — |
| PostPathpostpath.com | 2004 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Movaz Networks | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Delivery Agentdeliveryagent.com | 2005 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Aelurosaeluros.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Avvenuavvenu.com | 2006 | No | 37 | — |
| GigaFin Networksgigafin.com | 2005 | No | 35 | — |
| Fulcrum Microsystemsfulcrummicro.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Force10 Networksforce10networks.com | 2003 | Yes | 26 | — |
| Azul Systemsazulsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Mirapoint Softwaremirapoint.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| ONStoronstor.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Agility Communicationsjdsu.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |