Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
WRF Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (8 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.1%–86.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+23.2 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 43.5%
Vs median VC book
+13.3 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 53.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-1.8 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 68.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-1.7 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 65.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
74
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.2% (2 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 5.1%–47.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.8 pp
18.2% on 11 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimbicnimbic.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Corensiccorensic.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Groove Biopharmagroovebiopharma.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Farecastbing.com | 2004 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Alder Biopharmaceuticalsalderbio.com | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Skytapskytap.com | 2007 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Teranodeteranode.com | 2005 | No | 72 | — |
| Mirador Biomedicalmiradorbiomedical.com | 2011 | No | 65 | — |
| Hyperion Therapeuticshyperiontx.com | 2007 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Arzedaarzeda.com | 2009 | No | 59 | — |
| VLST Corporationvlstcorp.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Targeted Growthtargetedgrowth.com | 2006 | Yes | 25 | — |