Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
XAnge Private Equity vs Kairos
7th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 30.4% (7 of 23 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 15.6%–50.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 15th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-13.6 pp
30.4% on 23 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
-24.5 pp
30.4% on 23 deals vs 54.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-38.5 pp
30.4% on 23 deals vs 69.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-40.6 pp
30.4% on 23 deals vs 71.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 15.8% (3 of 19). 95% Wilson interval 5.5%–37.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.2 pp
15.8% on 19 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
23 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayentiskayentis.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | — |
| VOSS Solutionsvoss-solutions.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Midisolairemidisolaire.fr | 2010 | No | 81 | — |
| Abaxiaabaxia.com | 2005 | No | 81 | — |
| RoyalCactuscompany.royalcactus.com | 2012 | Yes | 75 | — |
| mysportgroupmysportworld.de | 2012 | No | 67 | — |
| RunMyProcessrunmyprocess.com | 2010 | No | 67 | — |
| Sefas Innovationsefas.com | 2005 | No | 66 | — |
| Stantumstantum.com | 2007 | Yes | 62 | — |
| UCOPIA Communicationsucopia.com | 2005 | No | 60 | — |
| PhoneAndPhonephoneandphone.com | 2010 | No | 60 | — |
| Variopticvarioptic.com | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Nexwaynexway.com | 2005 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Wediawedia-group.com | 2007 | No | 43 | — |
| ATEMEateme.com | 2006 | No | 43 | — |
| Sinequasinequa.com | 2006 | No | 41 | — |
| SNADECsnadec.fr | 2008 | No | 40 | — |
| Compariocompario.com | 2010 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Pixwayspixpalace.com | 2008 | No | 38 | — |
| Epticaeptica.com | 2005 | No | 33 | — |
| IPTEGOiptego.com | 2010 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Mail'Inside | 2010 | No | 13 | — |
| CONEXANCE MDconexancemd.com | 2006 | No | 12 | — |