Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
XG Ventures vs Kairos
62nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 67.9% (19 of 28 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 49.3%–82.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 66th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.1 pp
67.9% on 28 deals vs 47.7%
Vs median VC book
+5.3 pp
67.9% on 28 deals vs 62.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.2 pp
67.9% on 28 deals vs 78.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.2 pp
67.9% on 28 deals vs 72.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
25
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (4 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 13.8%–60.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+21.6 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 11.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
28 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chartboostchartboost.com | 2011 | Yes | 94 | — |
| nWaynway.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| StarMaker Interactivestarmakerstudios.com | 2010 | Yes | 92 | — |
| MyLikesmylikes.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Tapuloustapulous.com | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Thanxthanx.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Euclid Analyticseuclidanalytics.com | 2010 | Yes | 86 | — |
| MightyMeetingmightymeeting.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Veriousverious.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Tsumobitsumobi.com | 2007 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Tellytelly.com | 2007 | Yes | 72 | — |
| TapSensetapsense.com | 2011 | No | 71 | — |
| NoRedInknoredink.com | 2012 | Yes | 68 | — |
| ThirdLovethirdlove.com | 2013 | Yes | 67 | — |
| eSharesesharesinc.com | 2013 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Tynkertynker.com | 2013 | No | 55 | — |
| Glympseglympse.com | 2010 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Chai Labschailabs.com | 2009 | No | 38 | — |
| FaceCake Marketing Technologiesfacecake.com | 2012 | No | 33 | — |
| MobSmithmobsmith.com | 2010 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Doppelgamesdoppelgames.com | 2010 | No | 15 | — |
| Vertigo | 2012 | No | 11 | — |
| PicCollagepic-collage.com | 2011 | Yes | 9 | — |
| Graffiti World | 2011 | No | 7 | — |
| Waluzi | 2012 | No | 6 | — |
| Shypshyp.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Luvocracyluvocracy.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Pogoseatpogoseat.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| AdStageadstage.io | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Hotelzilla | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |