Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
XSeed Capital vs Kairos
89th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 93.3% (14 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 70.2%–98.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 96th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+45.9 pp
93.3% on 15 deals vs 47.5%
Vs median VC book
+31.3 pp
93.3% on 15 deals vs 62.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+15.7 pp
93.3% on 15 deals vs 77.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+30.3 pp
93.3% on 15 deals vs 63.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
70
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 10.0% (1 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 1.8%–40.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-2.0 pp
10.0% on 10 deals vs 12.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zipline Medicalziplinemedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Siva Powersivapower.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| VitaPath Geneticsvpgenetics.com | 2009 | Yes | 94 | — |
| CellScapecellscapecorp.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Trifactatrifacta.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| SIPXsipx.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| GeneWEAVEgeneweave.com | 2010 | Yes | 81 | — |
| HMicrohmicro.com | 2007 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Breezeworksbreezeworks.com | 2013 | Yes | 77 | — |
| OPX Biotechnologiesopxbio.com | 2007 | Yes | 52 | — |
| MuseAmimuseami.com | 2007 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Neon Labsneon-lab.com | 2013 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Aliopartis | 2008 | No | 9 | — |
| Compass Quality Insight Inc.compassquality.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Pixleepixlee.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Chatouskiwi.qa | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| ShopSocially.comshopsocial.com | 2011 | Unobserved | — | — |
| BrightBox Technologiesbrightboxtech.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |