Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Yaletown Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 40.0% (4 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 16.8%–68.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-5.1 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 45.1%
Vs median VC book
-14.4 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 54.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-28.7 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 68.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-27.8 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 67.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+43.9 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeugma Systemszeugmasystems.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Indiceeindicee.com | 2009 | No | 92 | — |
| GenoLogicsgenologics.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Mixpomixpo.com | 2006 | No | 86 | — |
| Partnerpediapartnerpedia.com | 2009 | No | 83 | — |
| Chaordixchaordix.com | 2012 | No | 68 | — |
| GaleForce Solutionsgaleforcesolutions.com | 2006 | No | 52 | — |
| Microstaqmicrostaq.com | 2008 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Vizimaxvizimax.com | 2012 | No | 37 | — |
| Solegear Bioplastics Inc.solegear.ca | 2012 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Pretio Interactivepretiointeractive.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |