Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
YFM Private Equity vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 7.7% (1 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 1.4%–33.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-36.2 pp
7.7% on 13 deals vs 43.9%
Vs median VC book
-47.2 pp
7.7% on 13 deals vs 54.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-62.1 pp
7.7% on 13 deals vs 69.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-59.5 pp
7.7% on 13 deals vs 67.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
40
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–32.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-12.1 pp
0.0% on 8 deals vs 12.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gnodalgnodal.com | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Wadaro Limitedwadaro.com | 2007 | No | 76 | — |
| Silistixsilistix.com | 2007 | No | 59 | — |
| OchreSoft Technologiesochresoft.com | 2007 | No | 54 | — |
| Domainexdomainex.co.uk | 2008 | No | 40 | — |
| FreshT | 2010 | No | 34 | — |
| Peckforton Pharmaceuticalspeckforton.com | 2012 | No | 32 | — |
| Evodentalevodental.com | 2012 | No | 31 | — |
| Bluebell Telecombluebelltelecom.com | 2010 | No | 25 | — |
| Deep-Secure | 2009 | No | 24 | — |
| TeraViewteraview.com | 2012 | No | 23 | — |
| Seven Technologiesseventechnologies.co.uk | 2012 | No | 19 | — |
| Bagel Nashbagelnash.com | 2011 | No | 15 | — |