Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
SMH Venture Finance Limited vs Kairos
5th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 24.0% (6 of 25 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 11.5%–43.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 13th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-17.8 pp
24.0% on 25 deals vs 41.8%
Vs median VC book
-27.6 pp
24.0% on 25 deals vs 51.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-42.9 pp
24.0% on 25 deals vs 66.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-36.1 pp
24.0% on 25 deals vs 60.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
25
Mean model percentile
50
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 8.0% (2 of 25). 95% Wilson interval 2.2%–25.0%.
Vs exit base rate
-5.3 pp
8.0% on 25 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
25 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDD Grouppdd.co.uk | 2006 | No | 82 | — |
| Lattice Voice Technologieslattice-voice.com | 2007 | No | 80 | — |
| Mirificemirifice.com | 2007 | No | 76 | — |
| Covalent Softwarecovalentsoftware.com | 2006 | No | 73 | — |
| efloweflowglobal.com | 2008 | No | 66 | — |
| CInergy International UKcinergize.com | 2007 | No | 66 | — |
| Mtivitymtivity.com | 2005 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Object Matrixobject-matrix.com | 2007 | No | 61 | — |
| Aconite Technologyaconite.net | 2006 | No | 57 | — |
| ProVision Communicationsprovision-comm.com | 2008 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Paraytecparaytec.com | 2008 | No | 56 | — |
| Dynmark Internationaldynmark.com | 2007 | No | 50 | — |
| GO-SIMgosim.com | 2008 | No | 47 | — |
| Txt4txt4.com | 2005 | Yes | 46 | — |
| 2sms2sms.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Break30break30.com | 2008 | No | 44 | — |
| Diamond Microwave Devicesdiamondmw.com | 2009 | No | 39 | — |
| Radio Wavesradiowavesinc.com | 2008 | No | 38 | — |
| REM ENTERPRISErementerprise.co.uk | 2008 | No | 35 | — |
| CMS Global Technologiessupatrak.com | 2006 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Andelandel.co.uk | 2008 | No | 33 | — |
| New Net Technologiesnewnettechnologies.com | 2008 | Yes | 29 | — |
| CellTrancelltran.com | 2005 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Aupixaupix.com | 2005 | No | 22 | — |
| TBi Connecttbiconnect.co.uk | 2007 | No | 18 | — |