Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Yuuwa Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-16.6 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 45.2%
Vs median VC book
-29.4 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 58.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-46.3 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 74.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-46.8 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 75.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
39
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dealiseddealised.com | 2011 | No | 76 | — |
| iCetanaicetana.com | 2010 | No | 46 | — |
| AdAltaadalta.com.au | 2010 | No | 41 | — |
| GordianTecgordiantec.com | 2011 | No | 40 | — |
| Filter Squaddiscovr.info | 2011 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Agworld Pty Ltdagworld.com.au | 2010 | Yes | 20 | — |
| Oz Sonotekozsonotek.com | 2011 | No | 18 | — |
| Eridan Technology | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| PolyActivapolyactiva.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |