Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Zelkova Ventures vs Kairos
38th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (9 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.7%–80.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 53rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+14.1 pp
60.0% on 15 deals vs 45.9%
Vs median VC book
+2.2 pp
60.0% on 15 deals vs 57.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.8 pp
60.0% on 15 deals vs 73.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.6 pp
60.0% on 15 deals vs 73.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
74
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+38.9 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 11.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foodspottingfoodspotting.com | 2010 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Appstores.comappstores.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Encoding.comencoding.com | 2010 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Kohortkohort.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Spring Engage (formerly Spring Metrics)springenage.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| RJMetricsrjmetrics.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Lettucelettuceapps.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| NewsBasisnewsbasis.com | 2009 | No | 81 | — |
| Livefyrelivefyre.com | 2010 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Ambassadorgetambassador.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Red Roverredroverpilot.launchrock.com | 2011 | No | 74 | — |
| Jibejibe.com | 2010 | Yes | 67 | — |
| RelTel | 2009 | No | 52 | — |
| COLOURloverscolourlovers.com | 2011 | No | 44 | — |
| Framecheckframe.com | 2011 | No | 23 | — |
| Reachlireachli.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |