Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Zernike Meta Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 42.9% (3 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 15.8%–75.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-1.6 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 44.4%
Vs median VC book
-12.6 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 55.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-27.3 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 70.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-28.8 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 71.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
44
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paperlitpaperlit.com | 2010 | No | 75 | — |
| Passpackpasspack.com | 2008 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Atooma INCatooma.com | 2012 | Yes | 70 | — |
| RisparmioSuperrisparmiosuper.it | 2011 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Flazioflazio.com | 2012 | No | 29 | — |
| Techgeniatechgenia.com | 2007 | No | 16 | — |
| What’s More Alive Than You | 2012 | No | 13 | — |
| Angiodroidangiodroid.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |